Several years ago I attended a presentation by Daniel Burris, the author of the book “Techno-Trends.” The opening line of a presentation that still resonates in my head to this day is “The future is already invented”. After a long pause to allow the line to sink in, Mr. Burris began talking about technology life cycles.
It takes years from the time an invention is patented until it reaches mass production. For example, the zipper was invented in 1891. It took until 1923 to begin to be placed into production; some 32 years later. If you were in the button business in the early part of the 20th century, business was probably pretty good. Perhaps you might have been thinking about how to ramp up production to meet new demand as prosperity was on the rise.
However, by 1925, sales were likely declining as designers began to embrace the zipper. The zipper had reached its tipping point. Should the zipper have caught you by surprise? You had 32 years to consider how the zipper might change your business. Perhaps if you recognized the zipper as a potential game changer and embraced it you might have redefined your business from being in the button business to being in the fabric fastener business.
Your business would have lived on rather than followed the path to extinction. All it takes is to read the business section of the paper every once in a while or thumb through a magazine to two to discover potentially disruptive technologies.
What are you doing to make sure your business is not blindsided by a disruptive technology?
