Several years ago, I attended a presentation by Daniel Burris, author of Techno-Trends. He opened with a powerful statement that still echoes in my mind: “The future is already invented.” After a dramatic pause, he launched into a discussion about how technology follows predictable life cycles.
The idea is simple but profound—by the time we hear about a new technology in the mainstream, it’s often been in development for decades. Burris’s point? Disruption doesn’t happen overnight. It only feels sudden to those who haven’t been paying attention.
Let’s look at a classic example: the humble zipper.
How the Zipper Silently Transformed an Entire Industry
The zipper was patented in 1891 but didn’t gain widespread use until 1923. That’s a 32-year gap between invention and mainstream adoption. During that period, button manufacturers were likely thriving, maybe even expanding their operations to meet increasing demand. Life was good—until it wasn’t.
By 1925, fashion designers began favoring zippers over buttons. Those who failed to notice this slow-moving train saw their businesses decline, even vanish. But for the few who recognized the zipper as more than just a novelty, there was an opportunity to pivot. Instead of defining themselves as being in the “button business,” they could have reframed their role as being in the “fabric fastener” business. That shift in perspective could have kept their companies alive and thriving.
This concept still applies today.
Disruption Isn’t the Problem—It’s the Surprise That Kills
Most businesses are not destroyed by change itself. They’re destroyed by their failure to anticipate it. In many cases, the signs are all around us. But we’re so focused on day-to-day operations that we overlook them.
Look at the rise of smartphones. Nokia and Blackberry dominated mobile communication for years. But Apple didn’t just build a better phone—it changed the whole concept of what a phone could be. The touchscreen smartphone was already being developed while many industry leaders were still doubling down on keyboards and hardware features.
Or consider digital photography. Kodak actually invented the first digital camera in 1975—but shelved it out of fear it would cannibalize their film business. We all know how that turned out.
These examples are not outliers—they’re warnings.
How to Spot the Zippers of Tomorrow
So, how do you keep your business from being blindsided by the next “zipper”?
Here are a few practical strategies:
Pay Attention to Patent Trends Patent filings are a goldmine of future insights. You don’t need to read every filing, but staying aware of hot areas—like AI, battery tech, or sustainable materials—can offer a peek into the next wave of disruption.
Set Google Alerts for Key Technologies Want to keep tabs on developments in your industry? Set up Google Alerts for keywords related to emerging technologies or trends.
Attend Industry Conferences and Read Trade Publications You don’t need to wait for something to hit Wired or Forbes to know it’s important. Often, the earliest signs of change show up in niche industry circles.
Use Technology Monitoring Services Tools like CB Insights or Trend Hunter track emerging technologies and business models across sectors. They’re not free, but they can save you from making costly miscalculations.
Reframe Your Business Identity Stop thinking in terms of your current product or service. Start thinking in terms of the problem you solve or the outcome you enable. This mental shift can make it easier to pivot when technology changes the “how.”
Avoid the Kodak Moment—Stay Curious
In many cases, all it takes is browsing the business section of the newspaper, reading a couple of relevant blog posts each week, or setting aside 15 minutes a month to explore new patents or innovation reports.
We often underestimate how slowly disruptive technologies actually develop—and how many opportunities we have to adapt along the way.
Zippers didn’t destroy the button industry overnight. Buttons disappeared because their manufacturers refused to look beyond the status quo.
