The following article was written by Tuck Aikin, a former colleague of mine, several decades ago, but it is as true today as it was then. I hope you enjoy it.
“Don’t believe everything you think,” the bumper sticker says. Words of wisdom, especially in today’s age of information. We’re overwhelmed with opinions, sound bites, and data from sources that completely surround us: the TV, radio, newspapers, billboards and signs, movies, books, and, of course, the Internet. We’ve got so much ‘information,’ in fact, that when it assembles itself into trends or themes, into ‘common knowledge,’ we actually believe we know things. And, of course, the reality is that sometimes that’s true, and sometimes not. Here’s a strange example.
The National Public Radio program This American Life, hosted by commentator Ira Glass, recently featured an interview with Barry Keenan, the fellow who, back in 1963, kidnaped singer Frank Sinatra’s son, Frank Junior. Just another vicious, greedy criminal incident, one might think, but this one’s got a bizarre twist.
Evidently, as a budding real estate mogul, Mr. Keenan was down on his luck, and through a haze of painkillers and alcohol, he conjured up the plot to kidnap Frank Junior, but first, he wrote up a business plan! That’s right: an indexed three-ring binder-clad printed business plan with all the standard sections: Product/Service Description, Market Assessment/Plan, Management Description/Background, Financial Statements/Projections, and an Executive Summary.
Mr. Keenan and his two ‘business partners’, who actually invested in the scheme, set a goal of $240,000 as the initial ‘sale’ (ransom). Unfortunately, after successfully nabbing Frank Junior, Mr. Sinatra Senior uncooperatively offered one million dollars in ransom, and the conspirators had to talk him down – their original plan called for re-paying the money in two years through real estate gains, and they estimated they couldn’t achieve their objective by that time.
Eventually, the inevitable happened. The plotters were caught, convicted, and jailed, although Mr. Keenan spent only about four years in a special psychiatric prison facility – he was found to be unbalanced at the time of the crime (no kidding). Ironically, in the ensuing years, Mr. Keenan successfully pursued his real estate career and has become quite wealthy! Bizarre.
And what’s all this got to do with small business, one might ask? Actually, quite a bit. Even though business startup aspirants might complete a thoroughly researched, exhaustively, and comprehensively prepared initial business plan, it is still up to the market, or lack thereof, to decide whether or not the enterprise will be successful. And since the market for a completely new business is unknowable beforehand, the founder of the entity is, in truth, at the mercy of fate, either doom or fortune. Yet regardless of this reality, a startup business plan is always advised by consultants and usually required by investors or potential lenders. The reason is probably due to the belief that some plan is better than none – it can at least act as a reference against which what actually happens can be measured. The problem with all this though is that too often, entrepreneurs actually believe that the business plan represents truth and reality, and overconfidence and a willingness to take on inappropriate levels of risk are the result.
The lesson in this is, of course, to be patient, prudent, and deliberate in starting that new business. And most important of all, back away from the plan and look at the big picture. Even though the business plan’s financial projections look attractive, does it really make sense to build an Antarctic wildlife tourist exhibit in Death Valley, open a specialty conservative bookstore in Hollywood, or offer mail-order poodles to members of the Harley Davidson “Hogs” society? Probably not.
So, take a step back from your business plan and use your common sense. As the bumper sticker says…
Tuck Aikin was a former SCORE colleague of mine for many years until his retirement. Tuck is a prolific writer and wrote small business-themed articles for the Colorado Springs Gazette for many years. As a co-mentor, Tuck was my inspiration for me starting this blog. The preceding post is reproduced with permission from the author.
