When a new disruptive technology is discovered, it is often marketed aggressively by the developer. The typical cycle is that it is over-hyped and people expect huge results. They invest heavily as they succumb to the madness of the crowd.
Most often, V1.0 products meet with a few roadblocks that tarnish its appeal. Most dissatisfaction occurs based on its over-hyped expectations.
As reality sets in that the new disruptive technology is not all that it was cracked up to be, there is a pullback in support. However, over time the pullback is replaced by a rise in positive awareness of the technology and an equilibrium is reached.
I have seen this cycle played out over and over. Take, for instance, when HD came out. We all invested in HD TV’s only to find out that there was little or no HD content. Over time the content became available and HD is now the standard for broadcasting.
The same can be said for WiFi. When it came out, we all replaced our laptops and mobile devices for ones that could use WiFi. Yet, we discovered that with WiFi we became prone to hacking and a pullback occurred. Eventually, encryption was added to WiFi and more hot spots became available.
Next time you see a disruptive technology, recognize that it often follows the same predictable cycle.
Are you an early adopter of new technology lured by the early over-hyping of a disruptive technology?
